Theory of Change

Every social programme rests on a belief that doing A will lead to change B, yet that belief is rarely written down and tested. On Sustainability 360° (Bền vững 360°), FTS CSRA experts show how to build a Theory of Change: its components, indicators at each link, eight quality-check criteria and how to apply it to projects in Vietnam.

FTS CSRA

2026-10-253 min read

Contents

Purpose and main structure
2.1. Components and example indicators
2.2. Eight quality-check criteria for a Theory of Change
Who uses it and how
Practical example
Notes for use in Vietnam

Theory of Change – Lý thuyết thay đổi · Ảnh: FTS CSRA

Overview and origin

Item	Details
Vietnamese name	Lý thuyết thay đổi
English name	Theory of Change (ToC)
Issuer / administrator	No single issuer. A cross-disciplinary method popularised by the Aspen Institute and the Center for Theory of Change, with application guidance from UNDG/UNSDG, UNICEF and development funders.
Nature	A design, management and evaluation method; not a certifiable standard or a fixed indicator set.
Reference scope	Development projects, social programmes, CSR, impact investment, public policy; a foundation for logframes, OECD-DAC evaluation, SROI and IRIS+ measurement.

Carol Weiss popularised the concept in the mid-1990s in evaluating community initiatives. In 2017 the UN Development Group issued Theory of Change companion guidance for UN Development Assistance / Cooperation Frameworks. Unlike a logframe, which is usually just a table, a Theory of Change explains why and under what conditions change happens.

Purpose and main structure

Purpose: (1) build a shared vision among partners; (2) choose evidence-based interventions; (3) identify indicators and data to collect; (4) provide a frame for monitoring, evaluation and learning.

2.1. Components and example indicators

Component	Definition	Example indicator
Impact	Long-term, society-level change the programme contributes to	Share of households leaving multidimensional poverty
Long-term / intermediate outcomes	Changes in behaviour, living conditions or institutions of the target group	% of trainees employed after 6 months; average income
Short-term outcomes	Changes in knowledge, skills, attitudes	% of trainees passing the skills test
Outputs	Direct products and services the programme delivers	People trained; courses delivered
Activities	What the programme does	Recruitment, training, job matching
Inputs	Resources: funding, staff, partners, facilities	Budget; number of trainers
Assumptions	Conditions that must hold for one link to lead to the next	Local employers are hiring
Preconditions	Intermediate results needed before higher-level results	Trainees have transport
Rationale	Evidence and research explaining why the intervention leads to change	Research on vocational training effectiveness

Figure 1. The Theory of Change results chain, spheres of control and influence, and assumptions to test. (AI-generated image) / Hình 1. Chuỗi kết quả của Lý thuyết thay đổi, phạm vi kiểm soát và phạm vi ảnh hưởng, cùng các giả định cần kiểm chứng. (Ảnh do AI tạo)

2.2. Eight quality-check criteria for a Theory of Change

#	Quality check criterion
1	Is the problem, target group and context clearly defined?
2	Is the long-term impact specific, measurable and time-bound?
3	Does every link have at least one indicator and data source?
4	Are assumptions written down with a plan to test them?
5	Is the sphere of control distinguished from the sphere of influence?
6	Were stakeholders, especially beneficiaries, involved in building it?
7	Are risks and unintended negative effects considered?
8	Is the ToC reviewed regularly against new evidence?

Who uses it and how

Users: non-profits, social enterprises, CSR/ESG teams, funders, impact investors and policymakers.

Define the problem, the desired long-term impact and the specific target group.
Map backwards: ask “what must happen first?” to find intermediate outcomes and preconditions.
Identify interventions (activities) and required resources.
Write down assumptions at each link and the supporting evidence.
Attach indicators, baselines, targets and data sources at each level.
Present it as a diagram with a short narrative; review it annually.

Figure 2. Building a Theory of Change by mapping backwards from long-term impact to interventions. (AI-generated image) / Hình 2. Xây dựng Lý thuyết thay đổi theo cách lùi ngược từ tác động dài hạn xuống các can thiệp. (Ảnh do AI tạo)

Practical example

Hypothetical case: an electrician training project for ethnic-minority youth in Lao Cai, 300 trainees per year.

Level	Content	Indicator and target
Impact	Sustained rise in trainees' household income	Average income up ≥ 30% after 2 years
Intermediate outcome	Trainees employed or self-employed in electrical services	≥ 70% employed after 6 months
Short-term outcome	Trainees have trade and electrical-safety skills	≥ 85% pass the final test
Output	3-month course with company placement	300 trainees/year; 40% women
Assumption	Employers hiring within 30 km; families support trainees	Annual employer-demand survey

Monitoring showed the “family support” assumption did not hold for female trainees, so the project added family dialogues and travel support – exactly the learning value of a Theory of Change.

Notes for use in Vietnam

Not the same as a logframe: many grant forms only ask for a logframe; build the Theory of Change first, then condense it.
Avoid vague “impact”: “contributing to local socio-economic development” is hard to measure; make it specific with indicators.
Link to official statistics: indicators in Vietnam's SDG statistical indicator set (Circular 02/2025/TT-BKHDT), such as the multidimensional poverty rate, can serve as impact indicators.
Beneficiary participation: hold workshops with community and commune representatives to test assumptions.
For corporate CSR: shifts reporting from “money spent” to “change created”, in line with impact reporting under GRI and B4SI.